Poor play can lower your chances below .25, but you can't improve on that. That's the chance of winning a perfectly played game.
If the other players were evenly matched, then youre right. However, I find them not all that intelligent so in my opinion easier to beat than just 1/4 of the time. But you are right, if you don't know what youre doing, can easily fall below 1/4.
Edited by Epidote6, 25 August 2011 - 05:00 AM.