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Survey of Bagatelle Outcomes


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#1 Dreww

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Posted 09 March 2011 - 12:51 PM

*
POPULAR POST!

Test for profitability in longevity of Bagatelle

The game interested me because it resembled the Plinko board from The Price Is Right. The Plinko board follows a binomial distribution of each outcome defined by 1/(2^{n-1}) where n is the number of peg-rows on the board (in the case of the Bagatelle board, this is 5 rows). This distribution of P(5) results in a 1/16th chance of any ending. The second distribution I am testing for is a bastardization of an infinite series lim n->16 of 1/(2^n) where n is one of the 16 outcomes. Following this, each reward (#1 50%, #2 25% etc.) would progressively be half the previous until 16, where to allow for 100% distribution I permitted 15 and 16 to have the same odds. Getting to the point, I am creating a data set of bagatelle outcomes to test both of the distributions I mentioned and to formulate any other potential ones. My two goals are to a) create a reliable dataset that can be simulated with low margins of error; and b) to use the sample data itself to see if profit occurs.

Wall of text aside, all you'd have to do...
Would be provide me with data! Bagatelle allows for 20 rolls a day costing 250np each (5,000NP total). If willing to contribute, post the daily outcome of your 20 rolls (in a single post!) with the # (1 through 16) and if you are lucky enough to get 12+, the item/jackpot value.

DATA:
First evaluation will come at 1000 entries, or if people care enough to post their rolls at all.

Simplified playing:
Courtesy of the amazing Mr Kway, this link will process the game for you! Feel free to copy and paste this outcome directly or post just the results if you use it.

To interpret the results, look for the 4-letter drop result that looks like LLLL - RRRR. These correspond to the following:
'

  • RRRR
  • RRRL
  • RRLR
  • RRLL
  • RLRR
  • RLRL
  • RLLR
  • RLLL
  • LRRR
  • LRRL
  • LRLR
  • LRLL
  • LLRR
  • LLRL
  • LLLR
  • LLLL

Status: Analysis on post #299


Edited by Dreww, 02 January 2016 - 03:45 AM.


#2 Blissey

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Posted 09 March 2011 - 12:52 PM

Already gave you my input through IRC :)

#3 Tarabyte

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Posted 09 March 2011 - 12:59 PM

Here you go. :)

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#4 iamlost26

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Posted 09 March 2011 - 01:48 PM

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Here's mine!

#5 Scot

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Posted 09 March 2011 - 01:55 PM

Yes! These are the kinds of topics we need around here. +1

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#6 Plunk

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Posted 09 March 2011 - 06:41 PM

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I can do this again tomorrow if you want. :thumbsup:


#7 Blues

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Posted 10 March 2011 - 06:31 AM

Heres Mine for you :)

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#8 esilim

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Posted 10 March 2011 - 12:32 PM

Already played today, but will give you mine tomorrow.

Surveys/questions like this would be nicely compiled by having an autoplayer that just sends the data to codex

<looks at programmers with shifty eyes>

#9 Dreww

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Posted 10 March 2011 - 12:40 PM

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I can do this again tomorrow if you want. :thumbsup:


Every day you can helps!

That'd be great quoga!

#10 jcrboy

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Posted 10 March 2011 - 02:01 PM

Every day you can helps!

That'd be great quoga!


All of our basic autoplayers have been gathering data for a while. I don't know where the data is going, but that data is floating around somewhere... XD

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#11 iamlost26

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Posted 10 March 2011 - 03:59 PM

Entry for day 2:
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#12 Dreww

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Posted 10 March 2011 - 07:46 PM

All of our basic autoplayers have been gathering data for a while. I don't know where the data is going, but that data is floating around somewhere... XD

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Yrah I know they do :p. I was replying to giving me tomorrow's.

#13 Scot

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Posted 10 March 2011 - 07:50 PM

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#14 luvsmyncis

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Posted 10 March 2011 - 08:16 PM

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#15 Tarabyte

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Posted 10 March 2011 - 10:07 PM

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#16 jcrboy

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Posted 11 March 2011 - 12:23 AM

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Pinning this, too.

#17 Blues

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Posted 11 March 2011 - 01:02 AM

Mine For Today

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#18 esilim

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Posted 11 March 2011 - 04:01 AM

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-280 on the day

#19 luvsmyncis

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Posted 11 March 2011 - 06:43 AM

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#20 Dreww

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Posted 12 March 2011 - 10:15 AM

Updated to 479 entries through post #19.

Total Cost: -159250
Earned: +80710
Net: -78540

Edited by Dreww, 15 March 2011 - 05:26 AM.


#21 luvsmyncis

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 01:58 PM

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#22 Narna

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 02:03 PM

Heres mine:

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#23 esilim

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 10:18 PM

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#24 carrice

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Posted 14 March 2011 - 12:21 AM

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Edited by bloomer, 14 March 2011 - 12:44 AM.


#25 esilim

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Posted 14 March 2011 - 06:21 AM

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