Test for profitability in longevity of Bagatelle
The game interested me because it resembled the Plinko board from The Price Is Right. The Plinko board follows a binomial distribution of each outcome defined by 1/(2^{n-1}) where n is the number of peg-rows on the board (in the case of the Bagatelle board, this is 5 rows). This distribution of P(5) results in a 1/16th chance of any ending. The second distribution I am testing for is a bastardization of an infinite series lim n->16 of 1/(2^n) where n is one of the 16 outcomes. Following this, each reward (#1 50%, #2 25% etc.) would progressively be half the previous until 16, where to allow for 100% distribution I permitted 15 and 16 to have the same odds. Getting to the point, I am creating a data set of bagatelle outcomes to test both of the distributions I mentioned and to formulate any other potential ones. My two goals are to a) create a reliable dataset that can be simulated with low margins of error; and b) to use the sample data itself to see if profit occurs.
Wall of text aside, all you'd have to do...
Would be provide me with data! Bagatelle allows for 20 rolls a day costing 250np each (5,000NP total). If willing to contribute, post the daily outcome of your 20 rolls (in a single post!) with the # (1 through 16) and if you are lucky enough to get 12+, the item/jackpot value.
DATA:
First evaluation will come at 1000 entries, or if people care enough to post their rolls at all.
Simplified playing:
Courtesy of the amazing Mr Kway, this link will process the game for you! Feel free to copy and paste this outcome directly or post just the results if you use it.
To interpret the results, look for the 4-letter drop result that looks like LLLL - RRRR. These correspond to the following:
'
- RRRR
- RRRL
- RRLR
- RRLL
- RLRR
- RLRL
- RLLR
- RLLL
- LRRR
- LRRL
- LRLR
- LRLL
- LLRR
- LLRL
- LLLR
- LLLL
Status: Analysis on post #299
Edited by Dreww, 02 January 2016 - 03:45 AM.
