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#1 Scot

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Posted 01 July 2011 - 02:59 AM

*
POPULAR POST!

Hello and welcome all to Super/System 2. This update will continue the tradition started one year ago. If you aren’t familiar with Super/System, take this opportunity now to get acquainted with it before proceeding. This year’s edition features a more comprehensive look at autobuying using knowledge I’ve collected over the past year. As such, S/S2 is divided into 2 parts. Part I is summary data of the first 4 months of the year 2011. Part II will deal with issues one faces when starting out for the first time as well as a brief guide on getting started.

Part I-A: Summary Data

Overview & Comparison

The following results were attained by using the Abrosia Main Shop Autobuyer on one(1) 1 y/o main account and one 3 yr old side account used only for the AAAttic, from January 18, 2011 to May 17, 2011. Also, I’m on slowass American internet, so I don’t want to hear any excuses.

1062182166.png

Here is a screenshot of the excel file. [Table 1 - Profits Grid]

Spoiler


Items:
Shops AB'd at: 1,3,4,5,7,13,14,15,16,30,37,41,58,68,86,98,108 [Pick 1 at a time and stick with it for at least 2 weeks]

Format - Description: Value (Percent change compared to last year's value)

Items bought: 2835 (-39.0%)

Average Items per day: 23.6 (-39.0%)

Of those, 184 were Unbuyables. (+187.5%)
Buyable:Unbuyable ratio – 15.41 (-78.48%)
Most Items in One Day: 49 (-49.5%)

Percentage of profits made on trading post/auctions: 44.23% (+351%)

Minimum Profit: 5000

Some things you will notice right off the bat is the profit is significantly higher than last year thanks to my new strategy. This year I ran the autobuyer for fewer hours a day compared to the previous year and went for less items in general, but more UBs. Another difference is how much profits came from trading on the TP/auctions. In general, not having a 99,999 np limit lets you to sell your items for higher prices but require more computer time to check trades.

[Figure 1 - NP Graph-Full]
Spoiler


I sold big items towards the end so the results look fantastic. I don’t like the way it makes this graph look because the extreme values stretches the graph.

The following graph is the same as the above but with two outliers more than 3 standard deviations from the mean removed(The standard deviation for this is 1,081,836NP, btw). The data is pretty consistent with the exception of values that are high but not statistically significant enough to be considered an extreme value. Notice the trendline heads downward. If you consider the two values(May 5th and May 16th) we removed to be anomalies, then the graph is consistent with data from last year’s results where average profits declined throughout the entire trial.

[Figure 2 - NP Graph-Outliers Removed]
Spoiler


Profits:

Shops: 71,922,000 NP

Trades/Auctions: 57,054,000 NP

NP Generator: 0 NP

Total Profit: 128,976,000 NP (+25.2%)

Average Profit/Day: 1,074,800 NP (+25.2%*) [+44.8%**]

*The official np/day figure for S/S1 is 741k when not including np generator and profits earned from legitimate means. The actual np/day figure when all sources of income are taken into consideration is 858k/day. This figure will be used throughout S/S2 unless otherwise indicated.

**The figure of 741k for S/S1 is used for this calculation.

Profit/Item: 45,494 NP (+105.3%)

Dividing the timeline into quarters looks like this

Q1 - 1st 30 Days 32,776,000

Q2 - 2nd 30 Days 32,430,000

Q3 - 3rd 30 Days 23,291,000

Q4 - 4th 30 Days 40,479,000

Quarter 1 was off to a decent start, for sure better than January of 2010 for me. A few 1m+ days and the beginning of the Faerie Quest Event helped spur profits.

Quarter 2 was the same as Q1 with roughly the same number of Quest days. When I say profit was good, I mean it was good. Thanks to the aftermath of the TFR plot, r60-70 items that stocked in dozens and normally sold for 5k sold for 50k for 2 weeks.

Quarter 3 was a little slow, due to the end of the Faerie Quest plot, prices deflated back to where they were before. Also the release of the plot prizes spurred a lot of people to sell off their stuff to invest in the new prizes. Not much consumer spending here. Also Scot found a job and missed a bunch of trade offers while at work. This goes back to what I was talking about before about UBs being profitable if you put in the time to sell them.

Quarter 4 made some amazing leaps thanks to 2 miracle restocks that boosted my income. In addition to that, I recovered an old shell of mine that was old enough to buy from the attic, further boosting my profits.

Restock Habits:

Surprisingly, the restock ban rate remains consistent compared to 2010.

Restock banned: 36 times or 30% of the time. (-2.7%)

For the duration of this period, I kept a consistent pace of ABing exactly 4h50m each day in two 2h25m periods with a 1h40m period of rest in between. This was a result of both necessity and preference to work around my schedule so I could AB while on campus and finish my daily routine by the time I came home.


inceptionxb.png

Part I-B: We Need To Go Deeper

Buy Speed

Average Speed: 1,527ms

Fastest Speed: 943ms

Slowest Speed: 25,369ms


Special thanks to Noitidart and Waser Lave for their help on this next part! Due to RegEx being a bitch, there was a slight discrepancy in number crunching so I will include both their contributions.

Buy Rate (Waser)

Items Bought (non-igloo): 2342
Items Missed (non-igloo): 4859

Buy Rate: 32.52%


Buy Rate (Noit)

Items Bought (non-igloo): 2303
Items Missed (non-igloo): 4679

Buy rate: 32.98%


Total Spent (Waser)

Total Spent: 16,030,925 NP
Total Estimated Profit: 139,344,649 NP
Average Spent: 6,384 NP
Average Profit: 55,493 NP

Profit markup: 769%


Total Spent (Noit)

Total Spent: 15,042,562 NP

Total Estimated Profit: 131,307,353 NP

Average Spent: 6,828 NP

Average Profit: 59,603 NP

Profit markup: 772%

Well that’s enough of the boring stuff, here are some pie charts*
*The following data excludes igloo and attic buys.

[Figure 3 - Buy Times]
buytimesms.png
[Table 2 - Buy Times]
buytimestable.png

With default settings on .9-1.6, I have purchased an assload of items while avoiding the ban hammer and making cash-money. A few items managed to slip under 1000ms which I believe is still in the safe zone. I hope this encourages many of you to push the boundaries of what you think is “safe” and “unsafe”.

Best. Buy. Ever.

Bought Blue Wocky Costume: 1515 NP in 25369ms (Est. Profit: 60941 NP)

[Figure 4 - Est Profits]
estprofits.png
[Table 3 - Est Profits]
estprofit.png

Nothing out of the ordinary here. Half the items bought were under 25k profit and made up 13,000,000 in profits, roughly the same as the 3 most expensive items. 25k-50k, 50k-75k, 75k-100k were all pretty much consistent in terms of how much their combined np contributed to the total. The largest group by far only makes up 6% of all total items but represent 40% of all profits is 100k-1m and that is exactly what you should focus on. That requires the most work and the most potential for profit.
[Figure 5 - Item Buy Price]
histogramh.png
[Table 4 - Item Buy Prices]
buyprice.png

This is a breakdown of what prices I bought each item for. They seem to be clustered around 1000, 2500, 5000, and 10000, corresponding to jumps in rarity. From this chart you can see the majority of the items are r90-r94 (5000NP) and r95+ (10000NP).

[Figure 6 - Scatterplot of Price and Profit]
Spoiler


Coefficient of Correlation: 0.261392

Here is a giant scatter plot mapping item buy price to their corresponding est profits. Outliers above 1m profit OR above ~16k ms buy times removed. There’s about 2200 data points here, most of them overlapping each other near the bottom. The coefficient of correlation is .26 (1.0 being a perfect linear relationship) meaning there is a very weak positive correlation. As item costs increase, their estimated profit does not significantly increase. What you should take from this is that the most expensive items don’t always generate the best profits.

And that wraps it up for Super/System 2. I hope you all learned something today. Remember to help control the pet population, have your pets spayed or neutered.


Special thanks: Noitidart, Waser Lave.

Thanks for the patience guys, this turned out way longer than I expected. Click here for part 2 of this guide.

http://www.neocodex....-to-autobuying/



#2 SamTheMan

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Posted 01 July 2011 - 03:22 AM

So much info to process, but once again you've done a great job :D

#3 Carialle

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Posted 01 July 2011 - 03:33 AM

Woah, great Guide. Thank you Scot!
+Rep :thumbsup:

#4 koobe

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Posted 01 July 2011 - 04:59 AM

So much information to evaluate and process. Thanks for all you hard work and effort scot.

#5 RWS

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Posted 01 July 2011 - 05:16 AM

Thanks for the guide! I will definitely be using it to improve my ABing.

#6 luvsmyncis

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Posted 01 July 2011 - 06:11 AM

Very sexy pie charts, indeed. +1

#7 zevrom

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Posted 01 July 2011 - 08:00 AM

Your download and upload speed is still faster

Edited by zevrom, 01 July 2011 - 08:00 AM.


#8 Blackout

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Posted 01 July 2011 - 08:15 AM

I'm sorry if this is here, but did you use ANY advanced member settings or did you do regular settings?

Your download and upload speed is still faster


I know. Since when was 96% in America slow, I got like 70% and that shit's fast <_<

#9 Blueberry

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Posted 01 July 2011 - 08:15 AM

Thank you for taking the time to carry out this project! I'll definitely use it once I become Advanced ;D

#10 policepro

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Posted 01 July 2011 - 08:38 AM

On the speedtest is that % accurate? I really doubt my internet is in the top 99%.


Also thanks for the chart on part 2 that explains some shops.

#11 Pavement

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Posted 01 July 2011 - 08:42 AM

Never knew the word awesome could be so well conveyed with one post.

#12 Claws

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Posted 01 July 2011 - 08:44 AM

Did you lose your account at any time during this project or did you manage to keep the one account?

#13 talbs

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Posted 01 July 2011 - 01:08 PM

Kudos, I love numbers so I would love to do an analysis of my purchases sometime. I don't think I would have the patience, plus I am still working on getting my settings down pat, which hopefully are improving as a result of this as well as the addendum

#14 Stunnerrunner

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Posted 01 July 2011 - 03:27 PM

Holy crap, my mind is blown. I thought I died and went to mathematics Hell... Just kidding. This guide is fantastic and well worth the wait and anticipation... Off to go read Part 2, just as soon as I pick my brain up off the floor.

#15 Scot

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Posted 01 July 2011 - 04:41 PM

On the speedtest is that % accurate? I really doubt my internet is in the top 99%.


It's misleading, the state average for texas is at least 3 times faster(9.28 Mb/s) and the national average is at least 4 times faster(11.12 Mb/s) than what I had at the time that was taken.
But I did make the point that latency is more important and you can lower buy time settings to compensate for lag and achieve your target buy times.

Did you lose your account at any time during this project or did you manage to keep the one account?


I am invincible.

#16 policepro

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Posted 01 July 2011 - 05:27 PM

Is latency ping? If so do you want lower ping?

#17 Shampoo

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Posted 01 July 2011 - 05:27 PM

i might have overlooked it, are the stats on igloo and AAA in there? does AAA boost profits enough to justify going back to my poorly named high-school era account?

#18 koobe

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Posted 01 July 2011 - 06:28 PM

i might have overlooked it, are the stats on igloo and AAA in there? does AAA boost profits enough to justify going back to my poorly named high-school era account?


You should definitely use your old account to stock at AAA. Don't think anyone has gotten frozen there yet, plus you can profit heaps if you are lucky enough.

#19 lonewolf

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Posted 01 July 2011 - 09:21 PM

Woah! Nice...but do we really need to go THAT deep? Buy with AB and Sell in Shop=Profit O.o

#20 WharfRat

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Posted 01 July 2011 - 09:44 PM

Thanks for the data, Scot! Perhaps I'm just a bit of a math/science nerd, but I love looking at numbers, charts, and statistics! (It secretly turns me on. :p) I'm still sticking to my new(ish) strategy but haven't put the data together yet... If I had to estimate the past four months for me? I'd say an avg. of ~120 mil as well... (I'll go check my paypal statements and the neotracker later and try to confirm. :p)

My month three was sooo slow... In fact, I made NO profit the entire month with the exception of AAA! May update later with numbers of my own, but I just wanted to thank you for the info.

P.s. for those wondering, go check out "Neotracker" up above. It makes nice charts and graphs for you on your info! :p (Only error I've seen with it is that it counts AAA buy times (0ms) into your avg. (Unless I'm mistaken or this has been corrected for...)

EDIT: According to the neotracker, with AAA included, I have made 143 million np. in the past ~4 months. Your mileage will certainly vary, though. :p (See image below on why YMMV :p)

Posted Image

#21 mintos

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Posted 01 July 2011 - 10:04 PM

These numbers broke my head. Nice record keeping of everything. In your opinion which shop garnered the most?

#22 BEEEEWRRYY

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Posted 01 July 2011 - 10:45 PM

Would you say that staying in one shop 2 weeks at a time is better profits than switching and alternating shops as a whole?

#23 Narcissa

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Posted 02 July 2011 - 12:48 AM

Love it, love it, love it Scot. Thanks so much, I repped.

Would you say that staying in one shop 2 weeks at a time is better profits than switching and alternating shops as a whole?


I would also like to know this.

#24 bruh

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Posted 02 July 2011 - 02:52 AM

Awesome guide +rep

Since I'm almost reaching 500 posts I can´t wait to start using it.

#25 GarenaMaster

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Posted 02 July 2011 - 05:36 AM

great job again Scot nice guide



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