The Concept: Through data gathering, Neopets' random dailies can be assessed for patterns and predicted overall payouts. Included projects are as follows:
The Faerie Caverns:
Spoiler
What is it? Located here, the caverns cost 400 NPs each time to enter. These caves are a series of three decisions (left or right). A "wrong" selection will place the user in a dead-end and their play for the day is over.
The Prizes: Upon reaching the end room, a prize will be awarded that consists of NPs (denominations: 400-2,500; 5,000; 10,000; 25,000) and a possibility of a bonus item (Beautiful Glowing Wings, Faerie Caverns Background, Faerie Caverns Stamp, Patamose, and Faerie Paint Brush (unverified)). Preliminary prize data courtesy of jellyneo, but I intend to confirm and further analyze this data myself.
The Hypothesis: The route is randomly generated each day, thus there is an equal chance (1/8) that any given "solution" will be correct.
The Test: The only real way to test this is to start gathering data. If the hypothesis holds water, then as more data is gathered, the ratio should stay at about 50/50
Additional Information That Can Be Gained: Another topic that is of interest to me is the drop rate of the prizes. What are the approximate odds that any given prize will be given out?
How You Can Help: I've coded up an Excel spreadsheet that should assist you in gathering data. Here's how it works:
Step 1: Find today's date Step 2: Enter your path for the day. The dropbox options are L, R, and -, the dash indicating that you made no choice for that option. In my example, on 8/6 I made a left and hit a dead end. Step 3: If you reached the end of the cavern, enter your prize. The possible items are listed in the item dropbox to make this easier for you. IMPORTANT: If you reached a dead-end, enter nothing into the prize field. Determining whether the last step was correct relies on whether the prize field is filled or blank. Step 4: The actual correct path that can be determined is now displayed in the "Actual Correct Path" columns, and your data is automatically analyzed over in the statistics section.
The Wheel of Excitement
Spoiler
What is it? Located here, the Wheel of Excitement costs 500 NPs to spin. This can be done once every two hours and a prize is awarded based on the spin.
The Prizes: Spins have the following possible outcomes:
No Financial Effect (8 spaces) (Note: I included the pant devil in this category. You should have all items in SDB while spinning)
NP loss (2 spaces)
Break even (1 space)
NP gain (4 spaces)
Item Payout (1 space)
The Hypothesis: Each space has a set probability of being chosen.
The Test: The only real way to test this is to start gathering data. As more data is gathered, a more complete picture of the potential outcomes should emerge.
How You Can Help: Included in the Excel spreadsheet is a page that should assist you in gathering data. Here's how it works:
Step 1: Select the first available result slot, and a dropbox will show you the wheel result options. Step 2: If you landed on the "?" space, result will show "Fill in:" prompting you to enter the received amount in the adjacent box (illustrated on Spin 10) Step 3: If you landed on the sparkly potion space, you have received an item, and will be prompted to fill in the adjacent box with the received item's name (illustrated on spin 6) Step 4: If you have received an item from the wheel, you should enter it into the Item Key (see below) Step 5: Statistics are automatically propagated in the dark orange fields.
Expellibox
Spoiler
What is it? Located here, the Expellibox welcomes you to drop a scarab in every 8 hours for free.
The Prizes: Possible Outcomes:
Nothing
Catch Disease
Gain Neopoints
Receive Item
Receive NC/NP (depending on country of residence)
The Hypothesis: Each outcome has a set probability of being chosen.
The Test: The only real way to test this is to start gathering data. As more data is gathered, a more complete picture of the potential outcomes should emerge.
How You Can Help: Included in the Excel spreadsheet is a page that should assist you in gathering data. Here's how it works:
Step 1: Select the first available result slot, and a dropbox will show you the result options. Step 2: Note the location the scarab landed Step 3: If you received NP, an item, or NC, enter your reward in the designated box Step 4: If you have received an item from the Expellibox, you should enter it into the Item Key (see below) Step 5: Statistics are automatically propagated in the dark orange fields.
The Wheel of Extravagance
Spoiler
What is it? Located here, the wheel can be spun every day and costs 100,000 NPs to spin
The Prizes: Possible Outcomes:
Lose NPs
Gain 1 NP
Boost pet stats
Payout a possible highly profitable item
The Hypothesis: Each space on the wheel has a set probability of being chosen.
The Test: The only real way to test this is to start gathering data. As more data is gathered, a more complete picture of the potential outcomes should emerge.
How You Can Help: Included in the Excel spreadsheet is a page that should assist you in gathering data. Here's how it works:
Step 1: Select the first available result slot, and a dropbox will show you the result options. Step 2: If applicable, note the stats paid out (HP, STR, DEF, MOV, INT) and each stat point's value to you in the lighter boxes (in my case, I value HP, STR, and DEF at 35k NPs each and MOV and INT are worthless). Step 3: If you received an item, enter it into the fill in field. Step 4: If you have received an item from the wheel, you should enter it into the Item Key (see below) Step 5: Statistics are automatically propagated in the dark orange fields.
The Item Key (suggested read)
Spoiler
What is it? A page on the spreadsheet that tracks all the items paid out by your dailies, which game paid them out, and in what quantity.
How To Use: Included in the Excel spreadsheet is a page that should assist you in gathering data. Here's how it works:
Step 1: Scroll to the first available item slot and input the name of the item you want to add to the database. Step 2: Determine a value to use when estimating profits Step 3: Everything else will propagate automatically
FAQS Where Are The Other Pages? If you're asking this, you're welcome:
Spoiler
What happens in (square, column, row)? Look for comments, I scattered them in appropriate places throughout the book
Have Multiple Accounts? I suggest not doing dailies on multiple accounts, but if you're determined to do so and collect the data, then I suggest creating multiple copies of the spreadsheet, one for each account.
How To Share This Data: All you have to do is upload your saved spreadsheet somewhere (Mediafire is a good free option) and drop me a PM letting me know where I can download it. I'll incorporate your statistics into my findings.
When To Share This Data: Sharing too soon would leave me with a large pile of submissions, and waiting too long would exclude your data from updates. Please send either at the end of the month or when you reach 100+ spins on an individual page.
XLSX? I have MSOffice 2007 installed on my computer, so that's what I used to make this. If there's demand for a different format (aka "Some features don't work when I use this in xxx program"), I'll make sure to cater to those willing to help gather data.
The Sheet Is Protected? Yes, mostly because I don't want anyone to accidentally mess with the coding. Everything that you should really need to edit are unlocked. While I did protect the sheet, there is no password on it, so if you really want to unlock it and look at the nuts and bolts of it, you're welcome to.
The Future Of This Project: I'd like to think of this as a work in progress. Here's where I can foresee it going in the near future (in no particular order): -Adding additional dailies to track -Statistical release -Possible release in another spreadsheet format (Dependent on demand) -Maybe one day getting involved with the programming team again to make a daily doer?
Updates: 8/15/2011 - (V 0.1) Initial release 8/15/2011 - (V 0.2) Updated to include Wheel of Excitement 8/19/2011 - (V 0.3) Expellibox and Wheel of Extravagance added, function upgrades/updates, central itemdb added, visual updates, cell comments
Somebody else wanted to gather data on the wheel of excitement. I guess you found a better/easier way to gather data.
If the neocodex programmers would make a program that did all the dailies for you, it would make your job of gathering data alot easier. Like what they did for Bagatelle.
Though ^ does seem like a lot of work.
This seems like a great idea, i'll try to remember to do it lol
Would you be able to add the Qasalan Expellibox as well? I would love to see how often the NC prize is awarded. Hmm I just noticed that it isn't available on Neoalerts... Woops, There it is xD
just make sure that you are only accepting data from reliable people. I wouldn't accept any data till after you have done it a hundred times or so because then you will be able to see if they are way out of wack with your own.
just make sure that you are only accepting data from reliable people. I wouldn't accept any data till after you have done it a hundred times or so because then you will be able to see if they are way out of wack with your own.
I'm keeping all the data separate until I have enough raw data on my own to make a baseline for submissions :3
cool I'll participate :3 Other dailies I'd be interested in seeing data for: Coltzan Shrine (how often does it train/improve your pet) & Scratchcards
Shrine: Any tester would have to use a pet with level <20. IIRC, there is an inverse relationship between pet level and odds of payout bottoming out at about level 20. Other than that though, I was pretty sure it was partially linked to time of submission? I'd consider this if it were a program gathering all the relevant data (pet level, exact time of submission).
Scratchcards: The limiting factor on this one is the inherent randomness of not knowing what is under unscratched spaces, thus making it difficult to know precisely what the card COULD HAVE won. Still would be worth collecting the data if it were in a program, though.
That said, I would definitely include both if/when I get a chance to actually make a daily doer :3
Note: Working on an update to the spreadsheet to include Expellibox, Wheel of Extravagance, and an Item Database tab (so prize items can be stored on just the one page instead of spreading them across all the pages). Details coming soon
Update: V 0.3 of the spreadsheet is now available.
New features: -Separate page for item pricing included -Wheel of Extravagance added -Expellibox added -Visual updates -Code updates -Comments added to some labels to provide info and make them easier to understand
Shrine: Any tester would have to use a pet with level <20. IIRC, there is an inverse relationship between pet level and odds of payout bottoming out at about level 20. Other than that though, I was pretty sure it was partially linked to time of submission? I'd consider this if it were a program gathering all the relevant data (pet level, exact time of submission).
Scratchcards: The limiting factor on this one is the inherent randomness of not knowing what is under unscratched spaces, thus making it difficult to know precisely what the card COULD HAVE won. Still would be worth collecting the data if it were in a program, though.
That said, I would definitely include both if/when I get a chance to actually make a daily doer :3
Note: Working on an update to the spreadsheet to include Expellibox, Wheel of Extravagance, and an Item Database tab (so prize items can be stored on just the one page instead of spreading them across all the pages). Details coming soon
Update: V 0.3 of the spreadsheet is now available.
New features: -Separate page for item pricing included -Wheel of Extravagance added -Expellibox added -Visual updates -Code updates -Comments added to some labels to provide info and make them easier to understand
Cool this will be very interesting if enough people participate I didn't know that about the Shrine though. No wonder Coltzan almost never seemed to affect my BD pet
I've been tracking Wheel of Excitement and faerie caverns. I'm not sure about how possible it is but what about tracking Anchor Management? It seems that a lot of people would be interested in finding out the frequency of release for higher end items.
I guess we'd have to find out what all the possible items given away are.
I'm not sure about how possible it is but what about tracking Anchor Management?
Anchor Management would be easy, simply enter the item received
And now with the integrated item page, adding a new item to the list is supah easy
I might incorporate this later today after I wake up... XD
Buried treasure would be nice. I don't know if people include it in their dailies though. Apple Bobbing too, as well as the Grundo.
This one's hard to track because it's not a luck game, so gathering statistics would be rough. If we had a program with networked searching, though? That would be boss.
Those headers damn well better be frozen.
I locked everything except the data entry fields. Everything else is there so that the user can receive instant feedback on their stats.
Nothing's there to stop them from going and unprotecting everything, though... but why would they? If they really want to know what functions I used, they're more than welcome to check. It's basic Excel shit... :3
Dailies Data Gathering (V0.3).xlsx 69.52KB
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