The whole point is to find an arbitrage. Now what is an arbitrage? Basically its betting when you know that theres an extremely high chance of you profiting.
First, lets take a real-life example. Tiger Woods and you and two other friends are golfing.
Here are the odds:
[/font][/size] [size=4][font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif][color=#000000]Tiger Woods: 1.001 to 1[/color] [color=#000000]You: 12000 to 1[/color] [color=#000000]Friend A: 13000 to 1[/color] [color=#000000]Friend B: 11000 to 1[/color][/font][/size] [size=4][font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif]
Now, who's going to win? Tiger Woods. Unless something magical happens, theres an extremely high chance of him winning.
Now, lets transfer that to Neopets terms
Tiger: 2 to 1 You: 13 to 1 Friend A: 13 to 1 Friend B: 13 to 1
Betting on Tiger gives you almost a 100% chance of getting a profit, although most of the time Neopets will have something more like this:
Tiger: 2 to 1 You: 7 to 1 Friend A: 11 to 1 Friend B: 13 to 1
How do you know if theres arbitrage or not? Take the larger number (X-1) and then find the % in the below chart and add the four numbers up. If your total adds to less than 100, there is an arbitrage. More than 100? No arbitrage.
2- 50%
3- 33%
4- 25%
5- 20%
6- 16%
7- 14%
8- 12%
9- 11%
10- 10%
11- 9%
12- 8%
13- 7%
Just find the arbitrage, bid on it. If you find another, bid on both and then combine them both. For even more strategies for abusing the arbitrage even more, go to the above link.
Quick reminders:
You DO NOT have to bid everyday, be patient. Some days you may win 200,000, and some days you may not bid at all.
The chance aspect of the game is more about the chance of finding an arbitrage and less about the chance of guessing and winning.