Want to ALWAYS win at the food club? Don't care to do lots of math?
If so- This is the guide for you!
This is not a newbie guide about how to play the food club, or how to increase your winnings.
This is a guide to always win at the food club, every bet you place- you WILL win using this guide.
It's founded on the 'dutch book' idea- where you can always win if you place the right amount on each participant.
Just follow these steps, you can do this on multiple races (if there's more than 1 that has a positive %):
#1 Go to http://foodclub.daqtools.info/ , pick out an area that has a positive ratio, for this example, I'll choose this one (+32.7%):
#2a Go to http://www.betcalc.com/eqprofitcalc.php load up the current odds from the tool above into the individual odds column as shown in my example
#2b Change the overall stake (see the end of the guide for this part) for this example we're using an overall stake of 100
#2c click 'show stakes' in the forth row
#2d Hit 'calculate'
#3 Ignore all columns except the 'Individual stake' column, this is what we will bet.
In my example we'll bet:
13NP on Stuff-A-Roo
59NP on Scurvy Dan
16NP on Peg Leg
13NP on Orvin
#4 Proof that we will always win:
We've bet a total of 101NP
Look at the possible scenarios:
Stuff-A-Roo wins, we win (13 : ratio) x (bet of 13NP) = 169NP minus original 101 bet = +68NP.
Scurvy Dan wins, we win 2 x 59 = 118 NP minus original 101 bet = +17NP.
Peg Leg wins, we win 10 x 16 = 160 NP minus original 101 bet = +59 NP.
Orvin wins (same math as stuff a roo), = +68NP
In every outcome, you WIN.
As far as discussing the maths behind a dutch book, I'll let you guys discuss that.
Setting the 'overall stake' in part 2b:
Set the stake to something a little over the amount of NP you can bet, the amounts shown that you should bet will always be lower than that.
So in my example, if I could bet only 60 NP per bet on my new account, the overall stake of 100 makes sense, since the max I need to bet is 59NP on Scurvy.
Hope this all made sense, please leave feedback on any math or understanding problems.
Edited by RitzWin, 25 November 2012 - 01:09 AM.