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Market behaviour during war


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#1 MrBenn

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 06:55 AM

The last war plot I was involved in (Meridell v Darigan) was a long, long time ago, and aside from remembering that prices of training payments (codies/dubloons/neggs etc) and BD items went up in value, I don't really remember much about the specific behaviour of the market.

 

I'm interested in hearing/seeing any information or thoughts anyone has on how the Neopian market reacts in times of war in a more specific way.

 

For example:

Did prices peak before the war started, in the early/middle stages, or right at the end? How long did prices take to recover afterwards?

 

Just curious if anyone has any thoughts they'd like to throw out there to start a discussion and hopefully help us predict market behaviour a little better in this (possibly...) upcoming war plot.

 

I was this site would stop trying to make me spell behaviour like an American :p



#2 Keil

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 07:10 AM

Behaviour is spelled by the British.

 

Behavior is spelled by 'Murica.

 

If you plan to invest now, I doubt you would get more profit than general ABing. 

 

To me, the prices (weapons, codestones/dubloons, stat increasers) only raise significantly up during the "hype" period. If the war drags on and on, the general prices lower slightly bit by bit because people are more inclined to fight than train, especially higher HSD pets where it's almost pointless to train up 50 more points to reach the next boost where you probably only need a 600/300/300 with a HT set pet at most to beat all the opponents excluding final boss. It may be different this year, who knows?

 

I really don't know much other than that because I don't care. I won't be running out of NP very time soon to care about slight differences.



#3 Waser Lave

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 07:15 AM

It's a pity there weren't any decent Item Databases around at that time, we only have price trend data since 2009. :/



#4 MrBenn

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 07:38 AM

It's a pity there weren't any decent Item Databases around at that time, we only have price trend data since 2009. :/

Yea I'd love to have the data we have here dating back a few more years!

 

Slowpoke: I'm not planning on making any more investments. I've already got a large amount of stuff I bought a while back, just want to plan out the best time to start selling to make maximum profit. I also just like to get a discussion going and see what people think.

 

 

EDIT: Slowpoke, I tend to agree with your thoughts on training equipment rises. People can't effect their points haul/fun/trophy/whatever from the war by codestone training for a couple of weeks. Only the buildup period where people are really going to be training full on.

 

My plan at the moment is to wait till we get a more concrete announcement on what will happen, then I'm loosely predicting the prices will jump up another chunk, and then will probably be a good time to start selling off my stuff.

 

I noticed red codestones had already spiked and then dropped a few k the last days....


Edited by MrBenn, 31 January 2013 - 07:44 AM.


#5 Waser Lave

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 07:50 AM

I noticed red codestones had already spiked and then dropped a few k the last days....

 

If you check the Item Database the prices for most red codestones actually collapsed a few months ago. ;)



#6 MrBenn

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 07:55 AM

If you check the Item Database the prices for most red codestones actually collapsed a few months ago. ;)

 

Oh I know, I'm talking about prices over the last couple of weeks since plot rumours started.



#7 introman

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Posted 02 February 2013 - 08:41 PM

Wars in neopets has 3 primary notices that causes massive inflation. We've had encountered the first, the hype. The following other 2 are drastic as well, in inflating particular stock that you can potentially own.

 

2: During the war plot's and even some puzzle plots, that possibility of of illness that can strike your pet. If your thinking on making a profit well here is your chance.  During the marq war, illness  from 1 player battles was all a float increasing all weapons " namely poison darts" that caused a different illness.  Also obviously the corresponding cure for them as well. Morphing pots such as Petri's from 200k rocketed to 1.5 mill+ given that any "worm fed" item would heal your pet's illness. The biggest gamble in this war for many investors is what cure to buy, and will it be profitable. Here's your chance! Or obviously " If there is going to be a given illness."

 

3: Yes, the duration in war constitutes to how how certain BD items will cost.  Typically this can be seen in the middle of the plot. When players have a grasp of what icon element the waves unleashed will use to attack your pet. Typically shields, or all block icons are amassed during pre-war. For pennies on the dollar. Icon blockers are a lot different from Battle WEPS that incur damage, given the fact that all elemental icon constants can be bought in the HT. Once in the middle of the war, we will know what icons the enemy can block or deal. So if you want to turn a profit, given it's a potential war against the dino's, fire blockers and reflectors are inflating substantially.

 

Well the last case is very evident, usually don't include this but here we go, the lack of a particular item or holding of a item. If your new to neopets, during the Merdil war and Marq war. There were groups of hoarders, that literally bought out items eg" worms ". From the highly inflated price of 4000 a pop from 50 neopets, to nearly 10-30k. To turn profit in a easy way, other than abbing. You can join with huge marketers to monopolize a certain item essential to the plot. Of course if it's a core item needed by players. I've spend at one point 200million, flipping that to 350 million. Joining a ring that buys out stock.  Takes hours but is an alternative to abbing. Cheers! These are the trends!


Edited by introman, 02 February 2013 - 08:42 PM.


#8 Nalah

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Posted 02 February 2013 - 08:49 PM

Just be careful when investing! Hopefully no one here gets caught out if Neo decides to give out 'expensive investment' items :p



#9 redlion

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 01:46 PM

I should have checked which forum this was in before coming here.

I was hoping this was a discussion on market behavior during actual wars. As in between countries.

I was wrong :(

#10 ceterisparibus

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Posted 08 February 2013 - 07:19 AM

One thing to note that even through the prices of weapons will go up, it doesn't necessarily mean more people will buy it - rather I'll wait till it ends unless its absolutely important. 

 

Of course codestones and dubloons are another thing.



#11 MrBenn

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Posted 20 February 2013 - 04:26 AM

Red codestones just went crazy overnight... Zeds are up to 75k ish from 15-20k last night. Either the BD stopped dropping them as much or people panicked like mad when the BD was down for a few hours!



#12 Waser Lave

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Posted 20 February 2013 - 04:35 AM

It doesn't seem to be giving any prizes out judging by the few fights I just tried.



#13 verano

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Posted 20 February 2013 - 04:49 AM

It doesn't seem to be giving any prizes out judging by the few fights I just tried.

 

I think it's still giving out challenger specific prizes. I got a book from the Koi Warrior earlier, but prizes are sparse and just not worth it.



#14 iomega

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Posted 20 February 2013 - 04:49 AM

Nothing but "50 Neopoints" for me either.



#15 Xarieste

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Posted 20 February 2013 - 05:00 AM

I've been around a while on a couple different accounts. The last war I participated in required no training of my pet at all. The random shit that happens on Neo had for the most part adequately prepared me for the caliber of enemies I'd be facing. (I'm speaking of the last Sloth plot) Plus, you can get the same rewards as everyone else by just beating the easiest opponent a bunch of times as opposed to the main opponents a few times. There's a good bit of flexibility in place which I think is the result of TNT's desire to keep the economy rather stable.

#16 Strategist

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Posted 20 February 2013 - 05:09 AM

Yeah its been confirmed on the boards that the BD isn't giving out any codestones at the moment, spurring people to buy up big in hopes of making a bit of a profit. Lets just hope this was a glitch from the BD being down earlier and not a permanent thing, because the prices of codestones/training will be insane if this inflation continues.



#17 MrBenn

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Posted 20 February 2013 - 05:11 AM

That TNT mod "snarkie" posted in BD chat yesterday mentioning they were sorting out ways of putting more of the new faeries into the economy..Perhaps they are mucking about with the BD rewards to fit those in.


Edited by MrBenn, 20 February 2013 - 05:14 AM.


#18 Waser Lave

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Posted 20 February 2013 - 05:19 AM

That TNT mod "snarkie" posted in BD chat yesterday mentioning they were sorting out ways of putting more of the new faeries into the economy..Perhaps they are mucking about with the BD rewards to fit those in.

 

It would be sensible to give out faeries as well as other training items like neggs, codestones, food and healing items as battledome prizes rather than just random things. TNT haven't really been known for making sensible decisions though. :p



#19 contour

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Posted 20 February 2013 - 08:43 AM

Apparently, TNT is changing the coding so that faeries are given out as prizes, that's why there is nothing dropping from the battledome as of yet



#20 MrBenn

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Posted 20 February 2013 - 08:49 AM

I think that is all speculation based upon what snarky said in BD chat yesterday. She did indicate they would be looking to add faeries to the "prize lists" or something along those lines, but we have no evidence to show whether the lack of prizes today is a permanent change in bd prizes, a bug, or a trial period or similar.

 

That said, it does seem unlikely that TNT would have done this on purpose, all it does is inflate items which I don't think they are especially keen on, and they need to drop reds into the economy somehow...Like Waser Lave says though, TNT aren't renowned for their sensible decisions...



#21 Waser Lave

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Posted 20 February 2013 - 08:53 AM

Over the last couple of years or so they've actually introduced a lot of things to decrease item prices by pumping more of the rarer items into the economy so that's what makes me think they'll do the same for faeries and probably codestones too.



#22 MrBenn

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Posted 20 February 2013 - 09:06 AM

Yea I can't see it being long before they inject a ton of faerie's into the world. Maybe they'll give them out as rewards for fighting/doing things in the upcoming war...



#23 contour

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Posted 20 February 2013 - 10:16 AM

To be honest, I wish they made a special shop so that Faeries and Codestones cost neopoints.

 

The economy is so inflated right now, I don't see why TNT doesn't implement systems where users have to buy highly consumable items. A shop that sells Codestones and Faeries for 10-20k a piece can greatly reduce inflation.



#24 Waser Lave

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Posted 20 February 2013 - 10:17 AM

To be honest, I wish they made a special shop so that Faeries and Codestones cost neopoints.

 

The economy is so inflated right now, I don't see why TNT doesn't implement systems where users have to buy highly consumable items. A shop that sells Codestones and Faeries for 10-20k a piece can greatly reduce inflation.

 

The faeries stock in the magic shop. ;)



#25 contour

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Posted 20 February 2013 - 10:20 AM

The faeries stock in the magic shop. ;)

 

Yea, you have a point, but they really don't cost much at all. I think they're around 3k in the magic shop, and they only restock 3-4 per time.

 

What I'm suggesting is a shop that sells unlimited codestones and faeries at a set price, say 10-20k a piece.




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