13 replies to this topic

[yeahyeahstuff]

I'm not going to sugarcoat it, I'm dumb when it comes to statistics. So I read in an editorial that the more Bilge Dice Games in TOTAL you play, the more your chances of winning streak increases because of "stats." So I played, and played, and reached over 100k total games play. But I didn't try my best at winning so only have a total of 12k wins overall. My streak hasn't really changed so does that mean that wins ALSO matter into the equation? 

[James]

If I'm understanding correctly, you just played 100k Bilge Dice games without trying to win at all?

 

Well the whole point of the avatar is to win 10 times in a row, so yes, winning actually matters. If you don't even try to win your chances of getting 10 wins in a row is a lot smaller than if you actually try to win. The Editorial meant that the more you play and try to win, you have a higher chance of getting the avatar.

 

Example:

If you play 100k games and try to win each one, your chances of getting the avatar are higher than someone that only plays 10 times.

However, if you just half-ass the games and barely win any your chances of getting the avatar will be even lower.

[Sweeney]

If you play perfectly, which isn't hard, you have slightly less than a 25% chance of winning.
This is because draws, while returning your stake, break your streak as they are not a win.

Getting a 10-streak is a very, very unlikely event.

[yeahyeahstuff]

Aww noo.... did I just screw myself up and messed up my chances even more then? How disappointing...

 

Thank you both for replying.

[Sweeney]

Aww noo.... did I just screw myself up and messed up my chances even more then?

By not bothering to try to win when you needed to be winning? Yes.

[yeahyeahstuff]

Sorry for reviving the thread, but I've been playing now and this time trying to win every game. Would it be possible to fix my stats around 200k total games?

[Trey]

Sorry for reviving the thread, but I've been playing now and this time trying to win every game. Would it be possible to fix my stats around 200k total games?

 

I haven't read the editorial in question, but I imagine that they are just saying that statistically speaking, the chances of you getting a 10-win streak is higher the more you play. I don't see what is so difficult to understand about that - it's like rolling a dice; the more times you roll, the higher the chances you get of rolling a six. It's not that the dice is loaded so that it becomes weighted towards rolling a six the more times you toss it; you just have more tries at getting a six.

 

From the question you are asking, you seem to think that TNT is saying that the game is specifically programmed to make it easier to get a 10-win streak the more often you play. That's NOT what they are saying.

Edited by Trey, 26 June 2013 - 08:08 AM.

[Hinth]

This sort of reminds me of the scenario where gamblers keep on gambling because they believe since they've just lost the last 5 bets their chances of winning the next one is very higher/greater than normal. That sort of thinking is faulty statistics.

[yeahyeahstuff]

I see, thank you both.

[idontknow951]

Aww noo.... did I just screw myself up and messed up my chances even more then? How disappointing...

 

Thank you both for replying.

 

 

No. If the game is randomly generated each time, and you only have a 25% chance of winning, your odds of a 10-win streak remain the same regardless.

 

The odds of a 4-win streak is already pretty low: 0.39%

The odds of a 10-win streak is pretty much impossible: 0.000381469%

In comparison, the odds of winning the lottery: 0.00000715112384%

 

So yeah, you haven't really done all that much to screw yourself over.

[yeahyeahstuff]

So then my stats are the same as if I never played? Sorry, I'm obviously dense and always repeat things that have been said. ._.

 

But I found the editorial I spoke about earlier

 

"Hi, TNT! Is it true that the more games of Bilge Dice you play, then the higher the possibility of winning consecutively? ~roxanna203
We think that's more a reality of math / statistics than any game design, but "yes," we suppose? o.O"

[idontknow951]

So then my stats are the same as if I never played? Sorry, I'm obviously dense and always repeat things that have been said. ._.

 

But I found the editorial I spoke about earlier

 

"Hi, TNT! Is it true that the more games of Bilge Dice you play, then the higher the possibility of winning consecutively? ~roxanna203
We think that's more a reality of math / statistics than any game design, but "yes," we suppose? o.O"

 

Yes. Their reply is somewhat crafty in what they actually mean. Let's use a different example this time.

 

So say you have a fair, two-sided coin that will always land on either heads or tails. This means you have a 50% chance of heads, or 50% chance of tails. You want to get 3 heads in a row so you flip it five times and get the following results:

Heads, Heads, Tails, Heads, Tails.

 

As you can see, you haven't gotten a single 3 heads in a row yet, so you flip the coin another 5 times:

Heads, Tails, Tails, Heads, Tails.

 

You still haven't gotten your 3 heads in a row, but your overall flips have been:

Heads, Heads, Tails, Heads, Tails, Heads, Tails, Tails, Heads, Tails.

 

It should be obvious where I'm going with this now. If you look at the first series of flips, you only had one chance to get 3 consecutive heads in a row. In the second series of flips, it's the same. You had one chance to get 3 consecutive heads in a row. However, if we add the two together though, you have two chances to get 3 heads in a row, doubling the possibility of hitting 3 heads in a row. The reality is that your odds of actually getting 3 heads in a row never changes, but the possibility of doing that does since you had a bigger number of times to do it. That's what TNT's answer basically is.

[yeahyeahstuff]

Wow. Thanks! I obviously thought of something else. xD;; Thank you so much for the detailed explanation!

[jonvj]

Thank you for the post, I was also very confused about how Bilge Dice actually worked. I am a bit slow when it comes to math as well. Does anybody have statistics on the actual game they could share? like how likely it is to win, and if the game seems to stop you from getting streaks by putting in 'impossible games'