40 replies to this topic

[jcrdude]

I've been thinking of logging stuff like this for a long time, as the only real way to understand the statistics is to gather enough data to make the statistics viable from an accuracy standpoint.

The only way for me to ensure data purity is to collect all the data myself ATM...

BUT! I've been wanting to work on a little something for the Android OS (which will be one HELL of an undertaking as it requires a knowledge of Java, XML, and SQL... and none of those languages are in my repertoire YET) that would simply be able to do dailies. Anyone who ran the program would automatically submit result data and since the data would be standardized it could really be analyzed properly.

Anyhoo, that seemed kind of random?

[Dayzee]

I'd be interested to see what the stats are like for other wheels, personally, once I've obtained the relevant avatar for a wheel I tend to stop spinning. It'd be good to know if the other wheels would provide a profit whilst waiting to receive the avatar.

I was thinking this when I was writing this thread. I'm willing to do it and will post my personal findings.

What would be awesome/helpful would be if one of the programmers could add a sorting feature to the logs so you could look up your logs by event, not just by date.

[Homer]

But then no one would ever play it. That's a bad wheel as it is.

You know what would be a np sink? Walking through the Ice Caves should have a small chance of freezing your account.

Every time I see your post your always going about TNT should add freezing features. Hey man, let me climb the ladder too don't start the fire too early.
I haven't even gathered the wood (500 posts).

[Dayzee]

Every time I see your post your always going about TNT should add freezing features. Hey man, let me climb the ladder too don't start the fire too early.
I haven't even gathered the wood (500 posts).

Haha. Scot is a pessimist, Homer, and besides, he knows that TNT looks for any excuse to freeze without his fire-starting

[esilim]

Of course it's worth it. BUT what would really be worth it is if Neocodex put together a DAILY DOER app, with options to check the box for all the dailies we waste our time doing!
thx

[Ziz]

Of course it's worth it. BUT what would really be worth it is if Neocodex put together a DAILY DOER app, with options to check the box for all the dailies we waste our time doing!
thx

A programer once posted that it is not worth an daily doer app because they change constantly and some users only like some dailies.
I used to they were a waste of time. But now I think that there are worse ways of wasting time and a minute a day isn't a big deal

Edited by Ziz, 21 January 2011 - 10:11 AM.

[zevrom]

yeah I think its worth it that my favorite wheel

[Dayzee]

I'm updating this thread now that I have collected more data. I used three accounts to log data and analyzed the date individually, as well as pooled. Here are the results:

Acct 1:
114 spins
cost $57,000
won $79,715
other $12,130 (in potions - amt determined conservatively by using the LOWEST price on SW)
net $22,715np + $12,130 in potions

Acct 2:
42 spins
cost $21,000
won $31,094
net $10,094

Acct 3:
8 spins
cost $4,000
won $6,566
net $2,566

Total for all 3 accounts:
164 spins
cost $82,000
won $117,375
net $35,375 in np + $12,130 in potions for a total profit of $47,505

I did not assign an np value to having your pets healed or to gaining pet abilities. I also did not assign a negative np value for losing health to the skull, lightning or the lava ghoul, or items lost to the pant devil.

Breaking down the data further, I feel it is safe to say the wheel is weighted and not truly random at all. There are 16 spaces on the wheel - I pooled the data from all 3 accounts to come up with the following percentages:

Lightning Zap - 6 times - 4%
Blue Vial (All your pets are healed) - 7 times - 4%
$2,500 - 21 times - 13%
$500 - 40 times - 24%
Lava Ghoul - 3 times - 2%
Pink Vial (receive random potion or bottled faerie) - 6 times - 4%
$1,000 - 3 times - 2%
Dark Faerie (lose ability) - 0 times - <1%
The Skull (disease) - 4 times - 2%
? (win random amt of np up to $350) - 57 times - 35%
$5,000 - 3 times - 2%
Gold Lock (nada) - 3 times - 2%
Pant Devil - 5 times - 3%
$400 - 5 times - 3%
$20,000 - 0 times - <1%
Faerie (gain ability) - 1 time - <1%

I only won an np amount greater than $500 (the cost to spin) less than 1/5 of the time (or 17%) and still profited over $35,000 nps, not including the value of the potions I received. This was for one month of data across 3 accounts. That averages out to 5-6 spins per day which you could realistically do in one account. If you consider that to be a good representation of monthly data then you might deduce that annually, you could profit over $420,000 nps alone for spinning the WoE. That's WITHOUT even landing on the $20,000 prize. So I guess I'll keep spinning even after I get that avatar.

[Noitidart]

WOW! Amazing research there dayzee!!! Thanks for that it's definitely going to be useful for me!

[Dayzee]

WOW! Amazing research there dayzee!!! Thanks for that it's definitely going to be useful for me!

Thanks! I'm doing similar research on ALL the other wheels and will post once I've collected enough data.

[Frank274]

Wow, that IS impressive! I didn't think the wheels were worth it, TBH

[Kido]

cool. Good to see the only wheel I use still makes a profit +rep

[sircomflix]

Nice dayzee!

Looking forward to seeing the statistics from the other wheels (out of curiosity).

It's in no means a great money maker but at least it's nice to know definitively that it yields a fairly respectable return despite the low sample size.

[Butet]

i just play to get the avatar but still no luck for me

[chaoprokia]

Nice stats