Food club isn't really profitable, but I think it's kind of an interesting problem. It reminds me a lot of the MIT blackjack team (or if you've seen the movie 21).
If you have an old account, it is quite profitable. I make on average 50k a day (70%) return. Which is a nice little boost to my daily income, I admit it isn't huge but it is still very good for an easy and legit means of making neopoints. Though that return is only considering the days on which I actually follow my system, I generally bet MUCH more riskily near the end of the month in the hopes of gaining a nice trophy (and therefore usually end up losing NP). On those days I sacrifice high long term percentage return for higher (but likely more spread out) daily returns.
Basically what you need to do is add up the total odds (so 2:1=50%, 3:1=33%, etc) in each arena. If the number is less than 100% that means that that arena will likely pay out 'better' than what the odds say. When this is the case I place 6-10 bets on the 2:1 pirate in that arena, with 0-4 bets on the next likely winner(s).
If multiple arenas have less than 100% total odds, you have a better chance of winning big(ger) that day
. In this case I place bets on all the 2:1 pirates in all the arenas with less than 100% odds. (because (<100%)*(<100%)=(<<100%))
You see, if the odds in an arena add up to 80% while the actual odds must add up to 100%, that means the 20% difference must be there because some pirates have better odds than shown. In arenas where the total odds are less than 100%, generally the 2:1 pirates will have better odds than 2:1 (because 2:1 is the lowest payout shown) and the 13:1 pirates will have worse odds than 13:1 (because 13:1 is the highest payout shown). However there is no easy way of seeing whether the pirates with intermediate bets have better or worse odds than shown. To do so you need to look up the pirate to see what foods he likes/dislikes and check how many of his favourite foods are on the menu, as well as how many foods he dislikes. And unfortunately I have not yet found out how this converts into a change in the pirate's odds. I am too lazy too check this everytime I bet so the easiest solution is to pretend that each pirate with intermediate odds has exactly the odds shown.
For example if two arenas open with less than 100% odds. Say, arena 1 open with 90.4% with a 2:1 (pirate A), 4:1 (B), 13:1 ( C), 13:1 (D). And arena 2 opens with 73.1% and odds 2:1 (E), 13:1 (F), 13:1 (G), 13:1(H), while all the other arenas open with >100% odds.
You would want to bet on pirate A and E (because (<100%)*(<100%)=(<<100%)=66% meaning there is a larger discrepancy (44%) between the odds shown and the actual odds, and A and E are most likely to have better odds than shown. In fact if we assume that the other 6 pirates odds in those 2 arenas are ON AVERAGE equal to their stated odds, AxE gives a 44% higher payout than the actual odds say they should. So you should bet with A and E for almost all your bets with one additional pirate from other arenas (starting from the arena with the lowest total odds). Generally it is best to avoid 13:1 pirates, but you can choose to include them if you want to cover all the pirates in one arena. (This will DECREASE your overall percentage return, but will also DECREASE your chances of not winning at all that day. So it is good if you want short term returns, but bad if you plan on playing food club for a long time). Also in this case you would probably want to place one bet on B and E (8:1) so that you don't lose ALL your money if A and E do not win.
So lets say arena 3 has the next lowest total odds and has a 2:1 pirates (X), a 3:1 pirate (Y), a 4:1 pirate (Z) and a 13:1 pirate (W).
You would be AEX and AEY and AEZ but you would NOT bet AEW.
By betting on all the viable pirates in arenas with slightly higher than 100% average you increase your payout. because this allows you to use all 10 of your bets instead of just 1. Because betting on AE would give you a 44% payout, but only on one bet. Now if A and E win you are ALMOST certain to win your bet on A+E+One pirate from arena 3, so you get a 44% payout on larger odds (8:1 to 16:1). By also doing this on a second/third arena you can get 44% on two/three larger bets.
(Note the 44% represents how much more often you will win the bets than what the odds show.)
If more arenas open with (well) under 100% average, you are likely to win more. But the calculations are a little different for each number of available arenas (I also simplified them a bit so they are more understandable). I may post my full/actual calculations in the future, but I do not have the time to fully explain them now.
Edit: Or you could use the chart at
http://foodclub.daqtools.info/ if you don't feel like calculating the values yourself, because apparently they HAVE (kinda) figured out how strength/food adjustment affects the odds. From what I can tell they use past data to predict the actual chances of each pirate... which is a great substitute for experience (Because that's kinda how I choose between two pirates, once you play for a long time you get a 'feel' for which pirate will win
). Thank you RitzWin, for reminding me that this exists!
Edited by Sunshine1994, 21 November 2012 - 09:14 AM.
