33 replies to this topic

[Waser Lave]

As some of you may know (but most probably won't), we've been collecting stock market price data since around the summer of 2009. By now we've got quite a bit of information in there as you can probably imagine (we're coming up to 3 million individual rows of data) so we can probably start to see some interesting patterns in there. I thought it would be interesting to process the data in order to see what the effect would be if you'd bought each stock whenever it was priced at 15np and held it until it reached a certain price point, at which time you'd sell all of that particular stock. Most of them, as you would expect, show that if you'd held the stock until it reached its maximum price point over that period then you'd have made the biggest return but some of them show some unexpected results. I would have made each a different, pretty colour but I couldn't be bothered so you get that shitty default maroon colour.

 

AAVL:

 

 

CHPS:

 

 

DROO:

 

 

EEEEE:

 

 

FAER:

 

 

FISH:

 

 

HELT:

 

 

LDSC:

 

 

MYNC:

 

 

SHRX:

 

 

STFP:

 

 

TAG:

 

 

TSRC:

 

[Fikri]

i love these graphs!!

 

uhh but what do they mean though?

[Waser Lave]

i love these graphs!!

 

uhh but what do they mean though?

 

If you take STFP, for example, if you'd have bought 1000 of that stock every day that it was at 15 np over the last 4 years you would have made over 16 million if you sold them at 75 np but only around 3.5 million if you held them until they reached 80 np. So sometimes it's better to sell a stock when it's priced lower than it is to try to wait for higher prices to come around.

[Fikri]

If you take STFP, for example, if you'd have bought 1000 of that stock every day that it was at 15 np over the last 4 years you would have made over 16 million if you sold them at 75 np but only around 3.5 million if you held them until they reached 80 np. So sometimes it's better to sell a stock when it's priced lower than it is to try to wait for higher prices to come around.

 

oh i see... i need to be patient with these things... i always buy my stocks at 15nps and sell them the moment they hit 30.

[anewvision]

I don't know if you know about this or it would be helpful at all, buuuut

 

http://www.neodaq.info/

http://www.neodaq.co...s/thumbnail.php

 

Might be able to get some info from there

[Waser Lave]

I don't know if you know about this or it would be helpful at all, buuuut

 

http://www.neodaq.info/

http://www.neodaq.co...s/thumbnail.php

 

Might be able to get some info from there

 

They basically just suggest buying at 15 and selling at 60 (some of the charts already suggest that that approach is flawed), we want to see if there's a better (more profitable) way.

[anewvision]

They basically just suggest buying at 15 and selling at 60 (some of the charts already suggest that that approach is flawed), we want to see if there's a better (more profitable) way.

Oh, well I was referring to the chart data, not the method really hahaha I am aware you're trying to figure something new out ^-^

[Waser Lave]

Oh, well I was referring to the chart data, not the method really hahaha I am aware you're trying to figure something new out ^-^

 

We have charts with full half-hourly data going back over 4 years, I think their charts are overkill tbh. I suspect what happened to the stock market 11 years ago probably isn't going to affect what is going to happen in the next few months, for example.

[anewvision]

We have charts with full half-hourly data going back over 4 years, I think their charts are overkill tbh. I suspect what happened to the stock market 11 years ago probably isn't going to affect what is going to happen in the next few months, for example.

You may have a point....... MAYBE! lol

[Waser Lave]

You may have a point....... MAYBE! lol

 

We'll see.

[Florg]

Very interesting, any way of us to see this info for ALL the stocks?

[anewvision]

What am I looking at exactly? Volume and price? I am trying to understand completely... O.o

[jinq]

I'm still confused as to why you lose money if you wait for a bigger price? I thought there was no limit on how much you could sell.

[Chameleon]

I'm still confused as to why you lose money if you wait for a bigger price? I thought there was no limit on how much you could sell.

I might be wrong, but from what i get:

Lets say you don't sell until 60.  By the chart if you were waiting for 60 on TSRC it would have gone from 15 to 40 several times while you waited and made nothing.

[jinq]

I might be wrong, but from what i get:

Lets say you don't sell until 60.  By the chart if you were waiting for 60 on TSRC it would have gone from 15 to 40 several times while you waited and made nothing.

Yeah, but if you waited and sold all at once at a higher price, you make more money right?

[Scot]

I believe the idea here is you still have value in the stocks you own but if you wait too long, you're continually sinking more money into it without getting a steady return. If your selling point was 110 for every stock, you'd be pouring more money into stocks annually then you'd get out of it simply because 40-50 is common but 100+ takes a long time to reach. You'd have a lot of value on paper that are essentially frozen. You are more likely to make more money by doubling up every now and then over quadrupling up once in a long time.

[jinq]

^ wow, really nice explanation, +1 rep

[Waser Lave]

I believe the idea here is you still have value in the stocks you own but if you wait too long, you're continually sinking more money into it without getting a steady return. If your selling point was 110 for every stock, you'd be pouring more money into stocks annually then you'd get out of it simply because 40-50 is common but 100+ takes a long time to reach. You'd have a lot of value on paper that are essentially frozen. You are more likely to make more money by doubling up every now and then over quadrupling up once in a long time.

 

Yup, with most of them if you wait for a higher sell point you're going to end up having a high number of stocks but that doesn't translate to high profit because they aren't worth anything until they're sold. If we take AAVL as an example:

 

 

The last big peak in price was in March 2010 which means that if you were holding out for that sell point again since then and bought 1000 stocks whenever they were at 15 you're going to have all of that NP tied up in those stocks so essentially you've lost that NP until you actually sell the stocks.

[anewvision]

Are we going to get access to the data? Is this something that will be added to the site?

[jinq]

I wonder if you guys found a pattern to a particular stock

[Strategist]

Are we going to get access to the data? Is this something that will be added to the site?

[Contrasai]

THIS IS THE MOST INTERESTING THING I HAVE EVER SEEN AND NOW I DON'T KNOW HOW TO STOCKS. Don't tease, guys, when are we gonna get access to this? I'll even buy Advanced if it means being able to see all the detailed information.

[anewvision]

I wonder if you guys found a pattern to a particular stock

I wonder why the sky is blue.............

[Waser Lave]

 

:nono:

[anewvision]

:nono: