33 replies to this topic

[phalkon]

okay, this may just be a total fluke, but i've noticed that if i refresh the page until my neopet says "i'm scared", and then click to have him blasted, i have a much greater chance of getting a positive increase in stats... call it strange, but on a whim i decided to start paying closer attention to what it's been saying, and as stupid as it sounds, "i'm scared" works the best... maybe its just my account, but would anyone else mind trying this?

[Sweeney]

Fluke.

How long have you been trying for?

[ArticTheTiger]

That's just your mind looking for patterns that aren't there relax, that means you're human.

You will be assimilated just the same, human.

[Lychee]

I decided to be nice and test this, even though if it were that easy to control, someone would have figured it out in the many years the lab ray has been out. Whilst one did get positive stats change (+3 HP) the other got negative (-3 speed).

[Boggart]

I think JCR has a bunch of these theories tested, and as far as I know, it's all random.

Maybe it wasn't JCR.... >_<

[WakaWaka]

thisnis the same theory as those addicted gamblers.
"whenever I do X i seem to win X amount"
Lab ray is random.
Just like the slots.

[phalkon]

Fluke.

How long have you been trying for?

a few weeks now. the only time it's removed stats is one something semi-useless like movement. other than that, i think i've had it lower level once (and a few gender changes). i've even gotten + defense on more than one occasion. i honestly thought it was a fluke, but whenever i don't refresh the page until it says "i'm scared", it tends to be more random

i really should start keeping a lab log again.

[Scot]

ahahahahahahahaahahhahaaha

Spoiler

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[phalkon]

*not understanding your humor*

i mean, really it could just be something that simple. aren't the effects of coltzan's shrine, and the deserted tomb based on times? this could be based on something similar (although not time, since almost every other lab log analysis is based on time)

try it for yourself, honestly, what have you got to lose?

[Boggart]

IS coltzan's shrine based on times? 'cause it seems to be common that after your pet reaches a certain level all you can get is food, BD items and 200 NP >_<

[emerkeng]

IS coltzan's shrine based on times? 'cause it seems to be common that after your pet reaches a certain level all you can get is food, BD items and 200 NP >_<

Actually 3 years ago I had a lvl 100 kacheek and I would be able to get a free stat from coltzans shrine everyday with the timing not sure if i was just lucky . . .

[phalkon]

yeah, it's supposed to be based on timing for coltzan. apparently though, once your level starts getting higher, you have to be more precise with the times.

[Cassiek]

I think everything is just random

[Jiraiya]

I think everything is just random

I gotta agree with this. If there is some pattern, it should have been discovered for the past 10+ years in neopets and there should be a guide out there about this. Its totally random but interesting theory buddy:)

[iomega]

yeah i agree with everyone else. if it isnt random someone would've figured it out by now

[weke]

yeah, it's supposed to be based on timing for coltzan. apparently though, once your level starts getting higher, you have to be more precise with the times.

i have seen some where in neopets , its a coltzan project, the last time i saw it is that 3 ppl have confrim getting 1mil np at ??:57:xx NST

??=I forget which hour

[phalkon]

"i'm scared!!!!"

Hee hee hee!
and she gains 3 movement points!!!

[Scot]

All you've shown in this topic is pure confirmation bias. If you got 3 negative zaps in a row you'd probably just dismiss it as outliers right? To get a good idea of distributions you'd need at least 20,000-25,000 zaps with that specific message and another 20,000-25,000 normal zaps before the statistics really converge. Sorry but I don't think a hypothesis consisting of "I think x happens if y is present" followed by a few random samples holds any water.


This reminds me of an old school rumor back in the day. "If you hold down + B while throwing a pokeball, you increase your chances of catching a pokemon!"

[beach3boy]

This reminds me of an old school rumor back in the day. "If you hold down + B while throwing a pokeball, you increase your chances of catching a pokemon!"

Wait, that wasn't true?

[Drakonid]

All you've shown in this topic is pure confirmation bias. If you got 3 negative zaps in a row you'd probably just dismiss it as outliers right? To get a good idea of distributions you'd need at least 20,000-25,000 zaps with that specific message and another 20,000-25,000 normal zaps before the statistics really converge. Sorry but I don't think a hypothesis consisting of "I think x happens if y is present" followed by a few random samples holds any water.


This reminds me of an old school rumor back in the day. "If you hold down + B while throwing a pokeball, you increase your chances of catching a pokemon!"

This.
Maybe bug Noit to add the option to include the message the pet says before getting zapped.

Wait, that wasn't true?

Exact formula
The exact formula is as follows:

Where

• HP_max is the number of hit points the Pokémon has at full health,
• HP_current is the number of hit points the Pokémon has at the moment,
• rate is the catch rate of the Pokémon,
• bonus_ball is the multiplier for the Poké Ball used, and
• bonus_status is the multiplier for any status ailment the Pokémon has (2 for sleep and freeze, 1.5 for paralyze, poison and burn).

Given this formula, the maximum value for a (if the Pokémon could have 0 HP) would be catch rate × bonus_ball × bonus_status. The minimum value for a (for a Pokémon with full health) would be ⅓ × catch rate.

Calculate b as follows:

Then generate 4 random numbers between 0 and 65535, inclusive. For each number, check whether it's less than b; if so, the ball shakes once. If any number is greater than or equal to b, the Pokémon immediately breaks free. If all four of the numbers are less than b, then the Pokémon is caught. Note that if a is 255 or greater, then b is 65535 or greater, and then the Pokémon is guaranteed to be caught.

Therefore, the probability p of catching a Pokémon, given the values a and b calculated above, is:

The second expression for p may be expanded as follows:

Since (2¹⁶ - 1)⁴ ≈ 2⁶⁴, we can approximate p with the following expression:

The percentage error in this approximation approaches 0 as a approaches 255, and does not exceed 21.2%.

For a constant probability p, the probability P that a player can capture the Pokémon with no more than r tries is:

Note that this is the cumulative probability function for a geometric distribution. The expected value of r is 1/p, that is to say, on average, a Pokémon that can be caught with probability p will be caught with 1/p tries.

The inverse problem, the number of tries, r, needed to have a probability P of capturing a Pokémon is:

Edited by Drakonid, 22 July 2010 - 06:42 AM.

[Cheesy]

It's all random.

Edited by Cheesy, 22 July 2010 - 06:52 AM.

[iomega]

Wait, that wasn't true?

that was my exact reaction too! even the wording was the same lol

[phalkon]

All you've shown in this topic is pure confirmation bias. If you got 3 negative zaps in a row you'd probably just dismiss it as outliers right? To get a good idea of distributions you'd need at least 20,000-25,000 zaps with that specific message and another 20,000-25,000 normal zaps before the statistics really converge. Sorry but I don't think a hypothesis consisting of "I think x happens if y is present" followed by a few random samples holds any water.


This reminds me of an old school rumor back in the day. "If you hold down + B while throwing a pokeball, you increase your chances of catching a pokemon!"

of course it could be a different phrase for each account, only TNT knows for sure. i'll just start making a log with this specifc phrase, and you can just continue to gawk, poke fun of, and be negative at a distance, like the rest of the internet.

i'm just throwing a new idea out there, that i haven't seen anyone else talk about. most lab logs are collections of more than one person blasting their pet. sure we can cross out times, but i'm willing to try something new.

[luvsmyncis]

I'll help you, Mr American Dressing. Refreshed until my pet said she was scared. Changed gender.

MYTH BUSTERS!!!

[phalkon]

lol. another idea i have with this is that perhaps the "special phrase" may be different for each account for various reasons (like how your pet's name determines what books it will refuse to read)