kingofaces

For levels it's worth it depending on how much you would pay at the training school.

Terror Trove: Total cards scratched = 979

Chance of winning:

• Level 3.68%
• 5,000 np 3.68%
• 10,000 np 4.19%
• Snowball 4.29%
• Plushie 3.58%

Average cost / card = 850
Cost / level = 6764

Festering Fortune: Total cards scratched = 166

Chance of winning:

• Level 5.42%
• 5,000 3.61%
• 10,000 9.04%
• Snowballs 4.22%

Average cost / card = 4022
Cost / level = 54179


Also my running tab of the chances of buying specific Deserted Fairground SC's. After 500+ tries still no Pustrav or Rotting Riches, hence the less than percentage.

Total cards bought = 514

• Crypt of Chance Scratchcard 65.76%
• Undead Jackpot of Doom Scratchcard 27.04%
• Festering Fortune Scratchcard 4.47%
• Mutating Millions Scratchcard 2.72%
• Pustravaganza Scratchcard < 0.19%
• Rotting Riches Scratchcard <0.19%

Selling Crypt of Chance through Festering Fortunes from this will get you about to breaking even. It's the Mutating Millions that will give you decent profit. I've only netted about 200k from the amounts listed above, but it's still worth it to always buy cards for the off chance you get a Pustrav or Rotting Riches since you aren't losing np in the long run even if you don't get either of them.

It also is theoretically worth it to gamble for the jackpots. You just need to determine the chances of winning the jackpot for a certain card. Then just take the cost of the card / percent chance of winning = minimum jackpot to scratch at. Scratching at jackpots below that value isn't worth it, and you'll profit in the long run at jackpots above it. We're dealing with averages here, so you need to scratch a large number of cards for this logic to work. If you're going to scratch just one or two cards and call it quits you can't use statistics to help you. You're just dealing with mostly pure luck at that point.

This is obviously a tough idea to figure out just by watching shops alone, but maybe someone who works on the item database would have access to information on this.

Basically what I'm wondering is what determines how often certain items restock. For instance, the Brightvale Armoury has a relatively low number of high rarity items (r98, r99), while something like the Toy Shop has a large number of potential high rarity items that can restock. The question is, are you more likely to see a high rarity item at the Toy Shop than the Armoury as more high rarity items are aviailable, or is there an equal chance of seeing a specific rarity item regardless of how many items of that rarity are possible?

As an example:

Brightvale Armour - 8 r99s
Toy - 41 r99s

There are two potential ways that whatever program Neo uses to determine what restocks:

1. a. Restock occurs
b. Rarity of item to restock first selected with higher rarities less probable (in this case r99 occurs)
c. Item randomly chosen from the pool of all r99 items for that shop
or

2. a. Restock occurs
b. Item randomly selected from pool of ALL possible items in the shop with higher rarity items having a reduced likelihood of being selected

So with the two shops you have an equal chance of seeing an r99 under option 1. However, under option 2 it's more likely you'll see an r99 because there is a larger pool of r99s to choose from. There are other factors that could come into play such as how often the shop if full of items, but I would think all the necessary data is being gathered whenever people are using Abrosia. It shouldn't be very hard to tease apart the data either since it's pretty basic statistics. Has anyone looked at this yet? I think I'd be a nifty little stats project to look at that I could tease a lot of information out of it there is any data available. All that's needed is a log of what item restocked in a few different shops for a period of time (the longer the better, preferably at least a few days to a week) Then you'd just compare the occurrence of a specific rarity restocking over different shops.

So if anyone has looked at this already, it'd be cool to see how things might be working out. If not, I'd be interested in getting a hold of someone that works with the item database to see just how feasible it might be to check this out.